Background
The project-spanning working group „ Analysis of Indirect Disaster Vulnerability” (VAG) was founded in May 2008. Its focus is the understanding of indirect losses of disasters and their complex underlying processes at different spatial scales in the context of climate change.
For this purpose, the field of industrial losses of the former CEDIM working group “Asset estimation” is extended towards the vulnerability regarding indirect effects and combined with the assessment of social vulnerabilities within society as further drivers of indirect effects.
The VAG brings together the know-how within CEDIM in the following fields: “Vulnerability of Networks and Critical Infrastructures (projects “Traffic Infrastructure” , “Crisis management for large-area power blackouts”), Indirect business interruption losses (former sub-project of “Megacity Istanbul”) and Social vulnerability and coping capacities of mega-cities (Istanbul Megacity Indicator Systems”).
Objective/Project Tasks
The objective of the VAG consists of the following:
• Developing an integrated indicator model which aims at the analysis of the industrial and social vulnerability against indirect disaster losses on the regional level. Such an indicator framework is useful for addressing the complexity which is inherent in the vulnerability concept as it facilitates the combination of the different sub-systems or dimensions (industrial and social system) and can bring together results at different levels of granularity in an effective manner.
• Developing an indicator model by means of a software tool based on multi-criteria decision analysis (“Logical Decisions for Windows”). The software tool supports sensitivity analysis and visualization of results and facilitates the communication of the results to political or industrial stakeholders.
• Identifying the most vulnerable regions or hotspots of vulnerability, and in particular vulnerable processes and supply decision makers with a multi-facet picture of losses for a foresighted disaster management and the overall reduction of risk.
• The assessment is conducted on the spatial level of NUTS 3 (Landkreise) within the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg which as one of the most important economic states of Germany has a high indirect economic loss potential and, therefore, is an ideal pilot area for testing this methodology for indirect loss assessment.
Fig. 1: Overview of the indicator system
Status of the Project
As of August 2010, the indicator framework in nearly completed. In further developing the approach results from sensitivity analyses shall be used which will be conducted following the current testing of the system’s functionalities (including inspections of the quality of input and output data).
Future work
Currently a publication on the methodological aspects of the approach and the firs results of the test application in Baden-Württemberg is being prepared. The calculations for whole Baden-Württemberg and the sensitivity analysis will be completed by June 2010.
Publications
Hiete, M. and Merz, M. (2009): An Indicator Framework to Assess the Vulnerability of Industrial Sectors against Indirect Disaster Losses. In: Landgren, J., Nulden, U. & Van der Walle, B. (eds.), Proceedings of the 6th International ISCRAM Conference – Gothenburg, Sweden, May 2009, Nr. 131.
Project team
Dr. Bijan Khazai (Geophysical Institute)
Dipl.-Geoök. Mirjam Merz (Institute for Industrial Production)
Dipl.-Wi.-Ing. Carola Schulz (Institute for Economic Policy Research)
Dipl.-Wi.-Ing. Dietmar Borst (Institute for Finance, Banking and Insurance)