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Former CEDIM Projects

Causal Loss Analysis


Immediately after a hazard impacts a population, there are many important questions raised about the level of impact and the emergency response needs. Immediate response is often required before complete data are available. The causal loss analysis project focuses on creating methodologies to estimate and identify the key indicators and root causes in the immediate impact of a major event in terms of building damage and homelessness/shelter needs based on widely available data. This allows for the quantification of the scale of the disaster for response.

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Database CBR

Within the „Forensic Disaster Analysis“ various institutes of KIT and the Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam are working together on an interdisciplinary basis. The knowledge database to be developed in this subproject has a cross-sectoral task since several subprojects intend to use it. The knowledge database is a combination of existing and event-specific databases containing historical disasters such as earthquakes, floods, or extreme weather events. This allows further usage of analysis tools in the frame of CEDIM FDA. In particular, we focus on case-based reasoning which is a methodology that utilizes similar past events in order to draw conclusions about a new and to a large extent unknown event. The historical database can either be extended by experts or new cases over the course of time.
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Global Dynamic Exposure


It is becoming more and more important to monitor risk in the context of natural catastrophes. With growing cities and changes in urban developments, risk is changing in complex ways as it is not scaling with population size but depends on changing building stock, resilience measures, and also city structure. Thus, monitoring of exposure and vulnerability indicators is providing the necessary tool to understand the dynamic nature of risk in urban environments. Because of the immense number and variety of buildings, exposure-, and vulnerability-related data, surveying exposure on the building-bybuilding level cannot be compiled by experts only.

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Information Gap Analysis

The quality of a disaster response can affect how severely a society is harmed by a disastrous event. While an efficient response can help to reduce casualties and suffering, a less efficient response may aggravate the situation. In order to include the disaster response as a potentially contributing factor to the overall disaster impact, a methodology has been developed to analyze disaster response in near-real-time.
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Modelling Extreme Flood

The aim research project is the development of a modelling system to quantify risks of extreme flooding in large river basins. In the system, computer models and modules are coupled together to simulate the functional chain: hydrology – hydraulics – polder diversion – dyke failure – flooding – damage estimate – risk assessment.

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Assessment of Indirect Losses and Economic Impacts

The project aims at developing a method that enables the near-real time assessment of economic impact (both direct and indirect) for all phases of a disaster. The developed method must therefore help decision makers to come up with a good decision that is founded on a valid basis quickly although the available information may be incomplete, uncertain, lacking or conflicting. Additionally, the method should be designed to guide support the search for further information by focusing on the most relevant or vulnerable aspects. At the same time, the model hast to be easily adaptable. In this manner, newly available information can be integrated rapidly. The analysis can then be enriched successively providing near real time (as the situation unfolds) more and more detailed levels of analysis and more precise results. Finally, it must be possible to quickly adapt the model to different information systems and infrastructures to ensure that first results can be determined shortly after any potential disaster, wherever it might happen.
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Rapid Flood Event Analysis

  Within the scope of “rapid flood event analysis” a methodology for the near real time analysis of large scale flood events in Germany will be developed. This comprises the compilation, analysis and evaluation of the hydro-meteorological and hydrological situation in the course of the event right up to the assessment of direct flood damages. On this basis, the event will be comparatively ranked into a catalogue of historic large scale flood events in Germany.
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ATMO Forensic and Prediction System

Feasible and routinely available techniques will be used to give an advance or real-time estimation of possible damage (amount of loss) before and during a winter storm event over Europe. With accurate station data (wind gusts) at representative locations weighted or unweighted storm indices will be calculated for past storm events. All this calculations eventually lead into a kind of “storm-MOS” (Model Output Statistics) that describes a storm event with reasonable certainty and precision and that allows to evolve a storm damage function. Once the storm occurs, the wind measurements at representative locations on the one hand and the model predicted wind gusts on the other hand provide the storm indices and the appropriate damage index. The data of all past and future storm events will be fed into a database and the parameters are: name, date, regions affected, model data, measurement data and loss data.
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Slip Distribution

The goal of this project is to further develop and implement kinematic inversion techniques using displacement wave forms which include near-field terms in order to obtain a detailed description of the earthquake source within a short amount of time. One application, where rapid determination of slip distribution is crucial, is tsunami early warning. Quick and reliable assessment of earthquake magnitude avoiding saturation is essential for rapid shake-map simulation and loss estimation.
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Transportation Interruptions

  The overall goal is to substantiate and extend common methodologies of indirect loss assessment towards rapid loss estimation. Therefore this project contributes to a better understanding of economic losses of events harming transport systems. This project specifically aims to:
  • identify the data requirements and find innovate estimation methods in case of low data availability
  • classify the impacts of a disrupting event
  • determine the parties concerned
  • analyze possible methods of quantification and monetization of the impacts
  • assess the indirect costs associated with a disrupting event
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User Oriented Visualisation

Within the new project “Forensic Disaster Analysis” (FDA), CEDIM started an interdisciplinary research initiative to analyze natural disasters and their impact in near real-time. Focus is the complex interaction between natural hazards, infrastructure and society. The aim is not only to help understanding a disaster in near real-time but also to identify the root causes of the event to derive implications for a long-term risk reduction. One important information source therefore are historical events.
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