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Supertyphoon 'Haiyan' - letzte Aktualisierung: 13. Nov. 2013, 18.00 GMT

J. Daniell, B. Mühr, T. Girard, A. Dittrich, J. Fohringer, C. Lucas, T. Kunz-Plapp

Berichte

Hazard Information

Official Disaster Name Date Landfall UTC Local Duration (PHL)
Yolanda (International: Haiyan) From 4-11 7.11. 20:40 +8 30 hours

Preferred Hazard Information

Path Speed Definition Width (km) Gust (Peak) Landfall Sustained
280W (PH) then 325W (VN) 30-40kph Category 5 Max: 150 379kph 312kph 250kph

Location Information

Country ISO Provinces/Regions Most Impact Economic Exposure HDI (2012) Urbanity Pop. affected
Philippines PH IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, X, XI, XIII Leyte, Samar, Tacloban Ca. $104b 0.654 55% ca. 14 million
Vietnam, China VN North of Da Nang Coastal regions n/a 0.617 45% 600,000 evac.

*predicted path at this point – China will also be affected.

Hazard Description (Wind speed etc.)

Philippines Vietnam China Key Hazard Metrics
Typhoon (Cat. 5) Category 4 Unk. Leyte, Dinagat, Samar, Aklan, Capiz, Guimares, Cebu, with wind speeds exceeding 185kph
Haiyan Satellite Image

The category 5 typhoon made landfall near Guiuan on Eastern Samar at 07.11 at 20:40 UTC and hit with the strongest landfall wind speeds ever observed. Previously, the typhoon had hit the small nation of Palau causing some damage. Wind gust speeds reached a predicted 380 kph shortly before impact.The warm sea water and low wind shear has contributed to the maximum intensity of this typhoon before landfall. The central pressure was estimated 885 hPa (according Joint Typhoon Warning Center), which makes it only the 5th in 25 years in the Western Pacific to do so (Megi 2010, Flo 1990, Ruth 1991, Yuri 1991). The wind speeds have dropped significantly to around 150 kph approaching Vietnam and Southern China (Hainan). Typhoon dissipated 11.11. over China.

Additional hazard information on Haiyan/Yolanda at wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de

Vulnerability and Exposure Metrics (Population, Infrastructure, Economic)

The capital stock of the affected locations is around $104b with the GDP being around $31b with approximately 17 million inhabitants. Leyte was the first hit with destructive force (1.5 million inhabitants) with Tacloban City worst affected (220,000 inhabitants). Most houses will not withstand winds of over 200 kph, thus destruction in the eye of the typhoon will be close to 70-80 % as confirmed by police officials in the affected regions.

What have been the 2 largest comparable damaging events in the past?

Date - Name Impact Size (1 min sustained) Location Social % or Insured % Economic Loss in Philippines
2012 Bopha Typhoon (280kph) Southern PH 1146 deaths, 834 missing $1.04b USD (42b PHP)
1990 Mike Typhoon (280kph) Central PH 748 dead $879m USD (2013 adj.)

*Mike was close to the path of this storm in 1990 – destroyed 117,000 homes and damaged 295,000 others

Preferred Building Damage Information

UN Rapid Response (Tacloban City)

160,000 destroyed and 148,000 damaged buildings counted. Northern Leyte: The destruction has been canvassed at 70-80 % of homes destroyed.Panay Island : 127,000 destroyed and approx. 114,000 damaged. All communication systems affected. Tacloban City – 60% destroyed, 30% severely damaged, 10% damaged. Approx. 1,000,000 homes expected to be damaged.
*total destruction will not be known for weeks. Over 3.5 million houses exposed

 

Secondary Effect Information

Type Impact Damage % Social % Economic %
Storm Surge Wave heights of 5-6m were seen Major High % in Casey, Tacloban Unk.
Flooding River flooding and flash flooding Major Unk. Unk.
Landslides Not as many as predicted Minor Unk. Unk.

Preferred Social Impact Information

Type Median Accepted Range Description Source
Deaths 13000 Official: 2275 but many more Leyte:10000? (Tacloban:1000+), Samar: 3100, Panay: Over 200 dead; Total:22000 missing Officials from Police agencies
  *NB: 6000 people are currently missing on Person Finder (Google)  
Injuries 3804 Will increase Still being counted NDRRMC
Long term Homeless 2,100,000 estimated Based on housing destruction calculations and current PDRRMC data Daniell, CATDAT
Short term homeless 4,700,000 estimated Locations without power and damaged houses Daniell, CATDAT
Affected 14,000,000 8.0m IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, X, XI, XIII Estimates, NDRRMC

Preferred Current Economic Impact Information

int. event-day dollars

Type Median Accepted Range Description Source
Total Cost $13.6b $9b-17b Total estimate (using rapid loss model combined with damage for range) CATDAT/Jam es Daniell
Insured Losses $1000m $200m-$2b According to Bloomberg Analyst citing - % takeout should be lower however Kinetic Analysis Corp.
Aid Impact ca. $150m n/a Continually increasing (currently at ca. 1%) ReliefWeb

Direct Economic Cost (Total) - Summary

  • Given the capital stock of the disaster path and the destruction seen in locations of Leyte – a quick estimate can be made. Using the 70-80% destroyed rate for Tacloban and other locations, northern Cebu and parts of Aklan and Iloilo, the MDR (mean damage ratio) comes to around 30% for Leyte. In other locations like Aklan, and MDR of 15% is likely based on the initial estimates of house destruction. MDRs of ca. 15% in Samar. In less affected regions, MDRs of 1-5% are likely.
  • Reconstruction costs in the order of $4b (174b PHP) from the 3 provinces, and around $9.5b total cost for all affected regions from the first estimate (CATDAT-James Daniell)
  • Plantations and crop losses (sugar cane and rice) will be huge, and industry losses of the affected region will probably be at least 40% of GDP – thus around $2b from the 3 provinces and around $2.1b from other locations, totalling around $4.1b
  • This is in the order of 14 times larger than Typhoon Bopha.

Insured Loss Estimates

Public infrastructure damage has occurred, as well as total destruction of many industries. Sugar cane and rice production losses will be nearly total through this region – accounting for 50% and 33% respectively of the Philippines. Bloomberg currently estimates around 14% insurance losses as a percentage of total, however less is expected.

Abridged Summary Description

A catastrophic typhoon has hit Philippines, Palau, and will continue on to Vietnam and China. Over 13000 are presumed dead in Philippines with over 2.1 million homeless and between 3 and 5 million currently displaced (1.18 million on Panay Island). The economic cost will be the largest ever in terms of Philippines typhoon losses with around $13.6b USD or 590 billion PHP expected losses (which would be 10 times larger than historic typhoon losses).
CATDAT Economic Storm Rank 10: Catastrophic
CATDAT Social Storm Rank: 10: Catastrophic

Further Information and Analysis

  1. Hazard information and description
  2. Building damage information
  3. Social impacts
  4. Economic impact in a historic context
  5. Disaster information
  6. Social sensors
  7. Appendix: (historical losses from Typhoons in the Visayas, Leyte and Samar before 1934)

Is available in the latest pdf version of the report (go to top)

Links