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ATMO Forensic and Prediction System

ATMO Forensic and Prediction System

Dipl.-Met. Bernhard Mühr
PD Dr. Michael Kunz
Prof. Dr. Christoph Kottmeier 

Project Description

The online information service „Weather hazards – early warning“ (Wettergefahren–Frühwarnung) will provide information about current or future extreme or unusual weather events all over the world on a daily basis during the next months and years. Additionally, within CEDIM’s new scope of Forensic Disaster Analysis, Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung develops a method how to capture, to evaluate and to classify winter storms over Germany and Europe.
Until December 31st 2014, feasible and routinely available techniques will be used to give an advance or real-time estimation of possible damage (amount of loss) before and during a winter storm event over Europe. With accurate station data (wind gusts) at representative locations weighted or unweighted storm indices will be calculated for past storm events. For a reasonable number of these past storm events reanalysis data (GFS and CFS) are also available to derive storm classes and to compare these classes with the storm indices (validation). Wind gust parametrizations that e.g. include the stratification of the atmosphere, should further enhance the correlation between model gusts and measured gusts. By model analyses we will get indices describing affected area and intensity.
Another index concerning past storm events has to be developed out by examining insurance data: It’s a damage index that covers the number of damaged houses, casualties or the amount of loss. With the help of model forecasting, a storm index may be estimated before the arrival of the storm; using model ensembles we get information about the most likely intensity, the area struck, and the expected damage index. The closer the storm gets the better is the significance of the indices and the better is the overall description of the storm scenario.
All this calculations eventually lead into a kind of “storm-MOS” (Model Output Statistics) that describes a storm event with reasonable certainty and precision and that allows to evolve a storm damage function. Once the storm occurs, the wind measurements at representative locations on the one hand and the model predicted wind gusts on the other hand provide the storm indices and the appropriate damage index. The data of all past and future storm events will be fed into a database and the parameters are: name, date, regions affected, model data, measurement data and loss data.
In case of an extreme event (flooding, volcanic eruption, earthquake), the “Weather Hazard Early Warning” web-project provides all kind of climatological and meteorological information to all projects within CEDIM FDA. This includes measured rainfall data or rain forecast data for flood assessment as well as climatological data or real-time weather forecasts for earthquake affected areas. The information can be made available within short time once or routinely and for any region of interest.






Numerous articles and analyses of extreme weather events throughout the world:
www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de and www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/Ereignis/archiv.html